Going into February, many industry analysts saw the comic book filmDeadpoolas having potential to be hugely successful. However, virtually no one saw it nearly tripling its $58 million budget in its 4-day opening weekend, and the film has now grossed $600 million worldwide, leaving every other February release in its wake. Studios for some time will be analyzing who, why, and what madeDeadpoolsuch a success.
Looking ahead to March, it appears that the trend started by February of one film grossing exponentially more than the others will continue withBatman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice, which is the first time two of the most popular comic book characters in history appear on screen together. Despite this, we should also see some decent business fromZootopia,Allegiant, and10 Cloverfield Lane, which should push this ahead of the same frame last year whenChappie,Cinderella,Insurgent, andHomeopened at #1 on their respective weekends.
London Has Fallen – March 4 (Gramercy Pictures)
Despite mediocre reviews,Olympus Has Fallenbecame a surprise hit in March of 2013 and beat out the higher profile and star-studdedWhite House Down. The sequel arrives almost exactly three years later, this time taking the action to London where more world leaders are in jeopardy, larger buildings and monuments are exploding, andMorgan Freemanis once again doing damage control from the war room.
Not that any of that from a box office standpoint is necessarily a bad thing. Sequels with near identical plots tend to be some of the most successful, includingThe Mummy ReturnsandThe Hangover: Part II, by bringing back the original cast and keeping the same basic elements but raising the stakes and having additional exotic locations.
Olympus Has Fallenhad a great opening weekend ($30.3 million) and held on surprisingly well to a gross of $98.9 million despite direct competition fromG.I. Joe: Retaliationa week later.London Has Fallenhas action audiences to itself untilAllegiantarrives two weeks later, but because its predecessor isn’t very highly regarded, it should come in a bit under.
The Other Side of the Door – March 4 (Fox)
2016 hasn’t exactly been a banner year so far for horror. WhileThe ForestandThe Boybrought in modest returns,Pride & Prejudice & Zombiesflopped. The beginning of 2015 experienced a similar slump in horror, and it took the original and popularUnfriendedandIt Followsto break it.
Working inThe Other Side of the Door’sfavor is its trailer, which features several genuinely frightening moments and effectively lays out the creepy supernatural premise. Unfortunately, though, this one doesn’t look quite distinctive enough to break out, and Fox doesn’t seem to be putting a lot of marketing muscle behind it.
In addition, it faces tough competition for audiences seeking thrills from10 Cloverfield Lanethe following weekend. This should end up closer toThe Forest’s $26.3 million thanThe Boy’s$33.3 million.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot – March 4 (Paramount)
After delivering two moderate hits,Crazy Stupid Loveand last year’sFocus, directorsGlenn FicarraandJohn Requaare trying their hand at political comedy withWhiskey Tango Foxtrot, based on the popular memoirThe Taliban Shuffle: Strange Days in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The trailer actually makes the film look quite funny, andTina Feylooks to be playing well within her comedy wheelhouse. In addition, whileCrazy Stupid LoveandFocusare not perfect films, they are both hugely entertaining and feature great chemistry among their actors. Unfortunately, though, Paramount seems to be putting most of their March stock in10 Cloverfield Lane, because it seems as though marketing forWhiskey Tango Foxtrothas been surprisingly light thus far. In addition, political comedies have had a rough track record in the last year or so. Last fall’s star-studdedOur Brand Is CrisisandRock The Kasbahboth left theaters in a hurry.
Given the filmography of the directors as well as the hugely talented and appealing cast on display here, this should end up faring better than both of those films. Tina Fey has amassed a huge comedy following as a result of30 Rock, as evidenced by last December’sSisters’$86.8 million gross. While that is likely out of reach here, a gross just belowFocusdoes not seem out of the question, especially if the film turns out to be good.
Zootopia – March 4 (Disney)
Disney Animation has been on a hot streak with recent hitsFrozen,Big Hero 6, andWreck-It Ralph, and it looks as they will continue this trend withZootopia. The trailers so far have shown off incredible funny dialogue, gorgeous animation, and the film’s broadly appealing premise.
One thing that separatesZootopiafrom the aforementioned Disney titles is the release date: all three of those were released in November and received a boost from the holidays and kids being out of school. DreamWorks Animation has released one film in March for the last few years, to varying degrees of success. On the high end is 2013’sThe Croodswith $187.1 million and on the lower end isMr. Peabody & Shermanwith $111.5 million.
Given thatZootopiahas family audiences to itself for six weeks untilThe Jungle Bookarrives, this should do solid business especially if the film ends up being as good as the trailers. A good target for this isWreck-It Ralph’s$189.4 million, and maybe it will even go higher.
10 Cloverfield Lane – March 11 (Paramount)
10 Cloverfield Laneis one of the first big mainstream movies in a long time to come completely out of nowhere. It had been publicly stated thatJ.J. Abramswas producing a thriller under the nameValencia, but it wasn’t until the release of13 Hours: The Secret Soliders of Benghazithat it became known thatValenciais actually a sequel, spinoff, or ‘blood relative’ (as Abrams calls it) ofCloverfield.
In 2008, the low budget, movie star freeCloverfieldset the opening weekend record for January with $40.0 million, but it burnt out quickly and ended up with a final gross of $80.0 million. Despite the steep drop, the film is well regarded today with a 7.2 IMDB user rating and fans have been clamoring for a sequel.
Much like its predecessor (and arguably to a greater extent),10 Cloverfield Lanehas been completely shrouded in mystery. Three years ago, Abrams hid the presence of Khan from theStar Trek Into Darknessmarketing campaign, which arguably led to a lower gross for the sequel than its predecessor. He seems to have learned from this mistake because while the trailers for10 Cloverfield Lanedoesn’t actually show the monster from the first film, there is a familiar roar at the end of the Super Bowl spot, and the release in IMAX indicates thatsomethingwill be making an appearance. On the other hand, most of the footage we’ve seen takes place inJohn Goodman’s underground bunker, and the tagline ‘Monsters Come in Many Forms’ implies that the monster we’re all hoping to see may not show up.
Regardless of what ‘monsters’ appear in the film,10 Cloverfield Lanehas been met with a wave of hype that more or less guarantees a good opening weekend. However, as with many films, its staying power will be largely determined by its initial reception, which at this point is pretty much up in the air. Given the lack of competition for thrillers in March, though, this should hold on a bit better than its predecessor.
The Brothers Grimsby – March 11 (Sony)
It’s hard to believe that it’s been a decade sinceBorat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of KazakhstanputSacha Baron Cohenon the map as one of the industry’s funniest working comedians. His next two solo outings,BrunoandThe Dictator, fell short ofBoratboth commercially and critically, andThe Brothers Grimsbylooks like it will continue that trend.
Despite some funny trailers, reviews for the film have been mixed, and the release date has been delayed twice, which is typically not a good sign. In addition, outside of theAustin Powersfranchise and a few exceptions (last year’sSpy), the spy comedy subgenre has a typically low ceiling box office wise (This Means War,Killers). While Cohen has some strong support fromMark Strong,Rebel Wilson, andPenélope Cruz, this should end up close toI Spy’s$33.5 million.
The Perfect Match – March 11 (Lionsgate)
In the last couple of years, romantic comedies aimed at African-American audiences have seen much success. 2012’sThink Like A Mangrossed a huge $91.5 million, andAbout Last Nightopened over Valentine’s Day in 2014 and ended its run with $48.6 million. LikeThink Like AMan andAbout Last Night,The Perfect Matchfeatures a large ensemble cast. WhilePaula Patton,Cassie Ventura, andTerrence Jenkinsare appealing actors, they don’t quite live up to the ensemble ofMichael Ealy,Kevin Hart, andTaraji P. Henson. Also,Think Like A ManandAbout Last Nightalso likely received boosts from being based on previous works, whileThe Perfect Matchis an original idea.
The plot ofThe Perfect Match, a playboy falling for a girl looking for a casual relationship, is an appealing one, but it seems too generic a premise to break out. In addition, the film’s R rating may limit its audience. This should end closer toBaggage Claim($21.5 million), also starring Jenkins and Patton.
The Young Messiah – March 11 (Focus Features)
Based on the 2005 novel byAnne Rice,The Young Messiahchronicles the life of Jesus Christ from the ages of 7 to 8. The film has been stuck in development since 2007 and has had several false starts, but the result appears to have been worth the wait. The film stars everyone’s favorite villainous actorSean Bean, and the high production values are well showcased in the trailer.
While the film will have a built-in audience from fans ofAnne Rice, Christians may be turned off by the film being based on a non-Biblical book. The release of the film is timed nicely with Easter, but it faces tough competition for Christian audiences five days later fromMiracles from Heaven. Given the uniqueness of a film dealing with Jesus as a child, this should be a modest hit for Focus.
Miracles from Heaven – March 16 (TriStar)
In the last two years, TriStar has had some major hits with faith-based films, particularlyHeaven Is For Real($91.4 million) and last year’sWar Room($67.7 million). Although the true story ofMiracles from Heavenwas heavily publicized at the time of its occurrence, the trailer still seems to give a bit too much away by showing the young girl’s sickness and her recovery after falling from a tree. Also, as mentioned above, this is the second-faith based film opening in five days. Both films are timed well with Easter approaching, but it seems likely that they will cannibalize each other for faith-based audiences.
Despite this,Miracles from Heavenseems poised to out grossThe Young Messiah.Jennifer Garnerhas had a great track record at the box office with family films, andEugenio Derbez’spresence will likely help bring in his large fan base. In addition, this story and the memoir it’s based on are both well known and seen as hugely inspirational, a key element in selling a film like this. While it likely won’t reach the heights ofHeaven Is For Real, this should continue TriStar’s winning streak.
The Divergent Series: Allegiant – March 18 (Lionsgate)
WithThe Hunger Gamesfranchise concluding in November, Lionsgate is likely looking for a new franchise to fill its void. Despite the new direction they seem to be taking, theDivergentseries withAllegiantlooks like it will continue the diminishing returns started by its predecessorInsurgent.
Very rarely do third installments in a series gross more than their predecessors, particularly when they are not the concluding entry in a trilogy (a fourth film is slated for 2017) and when they are met with lukewarm reception.Insurgentreceived worse reviews thanDivergentand holds a low 6.3 IMDB user rating.
Another major hurdle facingAllegiantis the timing of its release. One week afterAllegianthits theaters, Warner Bros. will releaseBatman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice,which targets a similar young-adult action-adventure audience. Given thatDawn of Justiceis tracking for a $150+ million opening, it seems likely that moviegoers will quickly forget aboutAllegiant.Insurgentdropped 86.2% fromDivergent, and it seems likely thatAllegiantwill follow this pattern.
