2016’s domestic box office went out with a bang, as audiences and families unsurprisingly flocked to the multiplexes for some holiday entertainment.Star Wars: Rogue OneandSinghogged the majority of the cash flow, and are poised to continue to do big business into January.PassengersandWhy Him?, however, failed to live up to expectations. Speaking ofRogue One, that film pushed Disney past a record $7 billion at the worldwide box office, capping off a stellar year for the studio.
Looking ahead, this January is one of the more crowded in recent memory, with a whopping 17 films receiving wide releases. The oversaturated market means that many films are likely to cannibalize each other’s potential audiences, leaving limited room for releases to break out. However, there should be a few bright spots, asA Dog’s Purpose,Patriots Day, andSplitappear poised to do solid business.
Hidden Figures – January 6 (Fox)
A late addition to the awards race,Hidden Figurestells the true story of a group of African American mathematicians who calculated crucial flight trajectories for Project Mercury and the Apollo 11 flight to the moon in 1969, helping NASA win the Space Race. The film is based on the recent nonfiction book by Margot Lee Shetterly.
Although the film didn’t receive a ton of love at the Golden Globes (nods only for Original Score andOctavia Spencerfor Best Supporting Actress),Hidden Figureshas a strong possibility for a Best Picture nod when the Oscar nominations are announced. It has also received fantastic reviews, currently at a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes), and the initial per-screen average from its limited release ($20,620) indicates a strong road ahead.
Recent films dealing with NASA/astronauts have had a strong track record at the box office, withThe Martian,Interstellar, andGravityall grossing well above $150 million each domestically. However, those films took place largely in space, while most ofHidden Figureslooks to be set at NASA’s headquarters. Though the film’s trailer also has that “did I just see the entire film?” feel to it, a gross close to that of directorTheodore Melfi’slast feature,St. Vincent($44.1 million) should be within reach.
A Monster Calls – January 6 (Focus Features)
In a winter full of potential tearjerkers,A Monster Callsappears to be one of the most devastating entries, receiving rave reception out of its premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival, with countless people exclaiming that they bawled as a result of the film. It makes sense, as the film centers on a young boy dealing with the terminal illness of his mother and attacks by the school bully.
The film’s trailers describe this boy (newcomerLewis MacDougall) as being too old to be a kid and too young to be a man, a trait which also points out a factor that could hinderA Monster Calls’sbox office prospects. The titular Monster is a bit terrifying (especially when its eyes glow) and the film deals with a parent’s terminal illness, leading one to think that this may be far too mature for children, but perhaps also too childish for adults.
These same trailers, however, showcase the film’s original story, stellar cast (Sigourney Weaver,Felicity Jones, and the voice ofLiam Neeson), and spectacular visuals, which together giveA Monster Callsa truly unique look that helps separate it from everything else currently in theaters. Among the recent crop of more mature young-adult adaptations, this film may end up with a gross close to 2014’sThe Giver($45.0 million).
Underworld: Blood Wars – January 6 (Sony)
Underworldis one of the rare franchises that actually had an increased audience between the third and fourth installments, no doubt due in large part to the return of starKate Beckinsale. After a 6-year absence from the series, Beckinsale starred in 2012’sUnderworld: Awakening, which grossed a franchise high $62.3 million (and another $97.7 million overseas).
As is the case with many action/sci-fi sequels, foreign grosses can more than make up for any declining domestic returns, which means thatUnderworld: Blood Warsdoes not need to make as much as its predecessor in North America to be considered a success. Given a number of factors, this seems like a plausible result for the fifth installment of the R-rated series.
Blood Warsfeatures Beckinsale’s vampire Selene continuing to fight the war against the werewolves and stop them stealing (as you may have guessed) hers and her daughter’s blood. The trailers feature mostly identical elements to the prior installments, which will surely please fans of the franchise but is unlikely to produce many converts. In addition,Awakeningwas undoubtedly boosted by the popularity of 3D at the time, and the format has significantly cooled off in the last five years.
For the last three years, the first weekend of January has featured the release of a horror film, ranging fromThe Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death($26.5 million) toThe Devil Inside($53.2 million).Blood Warsshould get to the higher end of this range, but seems likely to come in lower than past installments of the series.
The Bye Bye Man – January 13 (STX Entertainment)
2016 was one of the best years for horror films in some time, both in terms of quality and at the box office. It’s tough to say yet whetherThe Bye Bye Manwill get 2017 off to the right start for horror, but it at the very least has this going for it: there is something undeniably creepy about seeing a ghost or demon (or whatever The Bye Bye Man is) in photographs with living people, which the film’s trailer has in spades, along with several other effective scares involving the menacing titular antagonist.
It also doesn’t hurt thatThe Bye Bye Mancarries a PG-13 rating, which will help drive in key horror audiences. One thing that may hurt the film however is its tough competition. Though they are technically different sub-genres of horror,Splithas all the makings of a hit, which may dramatically decreaseThe Bye Bye Man’sticket sales after its opening weekend.
If the film turns out to be as good as its trailers would seem to indicate, this may end up getting to close to recent mid-January horror hits and STX’s first horror film,The Boy($35.8 million).
Live By Night – January 13 (Warner Bros.)
Few directors have a track record as impressive asBen Affleck’s. His first two films,Gone Baby GoneandThe Town, were released to critical and commercial acclaim, and his third film,Argo, grossed $136.0 million and went on to win three Oscars, including Best Picture.
Live By Night, Affleck’s second Dennis Lehane adaptation, stars Affleck as a war veteran turned gangster during the Prohibition era. The film’s trailers show off a great deal of action and gorgeous cinematography, showcasingLive By Night’speriod setting. Like Affleck’s past directorial efforts,Live By Nightalso has a strong supporting cast. This one includesSienna Miller,Zoe Saldana,Chris Cooper, andElle Fanning.
Unlike Affleck’s other films,Live By Nighthas been receiving surprisingly lukewarm critical reception. Its score on Rotten Tomatoes currently sits at 35%, with reviewers criticizing Affleck’s reliance on familiar themes and plot points. As an actor, however, Affleck is still a major draw, as evidenced by October’sThe Accountant, which also received mixed reviews but grossed $85.4 million.Live By Nightis being released in a more competitive period, but it should still manage to be a hit for Warner Bros.
Monster Trucks – January 13 (Paramount)
This just may be a first: back in September, Paramount announced a $115 million write down related to the “expected performance on an unreleased film”. Although the studio has not specified which film has directly caused the write down, all eyes seem to be on the expensiveMonster Trucks, which indeed has all the makings of 2017’s first major box office bomb.
Monster Truckshas been sitting on the shelf since 2015, and has changed release dates three different times, which is never a good sign for a big budget studio film. The film’s premise, conceived by Adam Goodman (former Paramount film group president) and his 4-year-old son, seems largely unappealing to adults (and may have better suited to an animated feature), which is a key factor in selling a family film. The first reviews have also been largely unkind, which will also not help turn around adults who are already on the fence about buying tickets.
Given that the studio has already taken a large write-down, it seems unlikely that they will be contributing much marketing spend toMonster Trucks. If that turns out to be the case, this may even come in below notorious 2011 bombMars Needs Moms, which closed with just $21.3 million.
Patriots Day – January 13 (Lionsgate)
Based on the 2013 Boston Marathon bombings and ensuing manhunt,Patriots Dayis the second 2016 film from director and star duoPeter BergandMark Wahlberg. The first film in question was the excellent and hugely under-seenDeepwater Horizon, which ended its run with $61.4 million. This may seem like a fine result, but its $110 million budget indicates that it was likely a disappointment for Lionsgate.
At the time ofDeepwater Horizon’srelease, many box office analysts pointed out that films based on recent real-life tragedies tend to struggle to find broad audiences, withUnited 93($31.4 million) andMunich($47.4 million) cited as examples. Like the aforementioned films,Patriots Daychronicles an event that most Americans remember quite well, which may hit too close to home for some, especially those who lived in Boston and the surrounding areas at the time of the attack.
Working in the film’s favor, however, are strong reviews (currently at a 78% on Rotten Tomatoes), with many critics raving that the film is a stirring tribute to the bravery and commitment of the law enforcement personnel, firefighters, and bystanders who sprung into action during the aftermath of the bombings.Patriots Dayis also in many awards pundits’ conversations for a Best Picture nomination, and the film’s limited opening weekend ($23,044 per-screen average) suggests high levels of interest. Add in the film’s strong supporting cast, which includesJ.K. Simmons,John Goodman,Michelle Monaghan, andKevin Bacon, andPatriots Dayshould have no trouble matchingDeepwater Horizon. This would be a fine result, asPatriots Daywas much less expensive.
Silence – January 13 (Paramount)
Martin Scorsesehas been trying to getSilenceoff the ground for a reported twenty-five years—a film that follows two Jesuit priests (Andrew GarfieldandAdam Driver) searching for their missing mentor (Liam Neeson) and spreading Catholicism. The finished result appears to have been worth the wait: the trailers show offSilence’sstunning cinematography and rich story, and the film is receiving a great deal of Oscar buzz (in addition to an 89% on Rotten Tomatoes).
However, it is not terribly surprising that Scorsese had a tough time gettingSilencemade. A nearly three-hour-long film that features reportedly brutal torture scenes is an incredibly tough sell to mainstream audiences. Epics of this nature tend to yield strong box office results when they are based on a real event (Titanic,The Wolf of Wall Street), or if they are based on a popular novel (The Lord of the Rings). WhileSilence(the novel) is still well regarded today, it has nowhere near the rabid fan base as the aforementioned Middle Earth trilogy.
The film has however received a strong showing for its limited release ($32,720 per screen average), and in the event of a few Oscar nominations, could ride word of mouth to a sizeable audience. A gross around that of Paramount’s recentAllied($39.6 million) could be within reach.
With a few recent exceptions, versatile actorJamie Foxxover the last decade has largely appeared in serious dramas and comedies. As he has shown inDjango UnchainedandCollateral, Foxx is also a strong presence in action films, making his return to the genre inSleeplessa refreshing change of pace.
Unfortunately, Foxx’s starring role is just about the most notable element ofSleepless, which otherwise looks to be a by-the-numbers action film.Sleeplessfeatures a cop (Foxx) infiltrating a group of drug dealers, who retaliate by kidnapping Foxx’s son, leading him to begin operating outside the bounds of the law.
It doesn’t feel like an accident thatSleeplessis occupying the same release date as that ofTakenseven years ago, in whichLiam Neesonpunches sex traffickers in an attempt to rescue his kidnapped daughter. That film was a bit of an outlier in the genre, as it went on to gross a remarkable $145.0 million and spawn two sequels. The plot and look of the film recall less successful past kidnapping dramas, such asProof of Life($32.5 million). Given the tough competition for action audiences this month,Sleeplesslooks to end up on the lower end of these films.
The Resurrection of Gavin Stone – January 20 (High Top Releasing)
The Resurrection of Gavin Stonemarks the first faith-based film of 2017. Though the premise of a down-on-his-luck child star working towards redemption is an admirable one,The Resurrection of Gavin Stoneappears to have limited commercial prospects.
This seems like a film that would have benefited greatly from a well-known lead actor. No offense toBrett Dalton, but he has yet to be proven a draw for mainstream audiences. In addition, this is one of the more crowded months in recent memory, andResurrectionseems likely to get lost in the shuffle.
Though there have been a number of exceptions, faith-based films without well- known casts have struggled at the box office, particularly those released in January. An exact theater count is not yet available, but assuming it’s hovering around the 1,000-1,500 range, this should end up around 2015’s90 Minutes in Heaven($4.8 million).
