At long last here we are: Oscar nominations predictions time. This has been one of the noisiest awards seasons I’ve ever covered, asA Star Is Bornmade a big splash last fall, only for the next few months to be dominated by think piece after think piece after think piece.Green BookandBohemian Rhapsodyhave stirred up enough controversies to last a few awards seasons (some warranted, some not) andRomafilmmakerAlfonso Cuaróncontinues to be plagued with questions about Netflix and theatrical distribution. To put it into perspective:Vice, the film that paints a monstrous portrait of former Vice President Dick Cheney, is one of the least controversial films in this year’s awards race.
Will any of this matter come Oscar nominations time? Will voters’ minds be swayed by the ethical implications of twisting true stories inGreen BookorBohemian Rhapsody? We’ll find out on Tuesday when the nominations are officially announced, but for now I did my best to put my head down, drown out the noise, and focus on which films, performers, and craftspeople will be nominated.
So below are my Oscar nominations predictions in most of the categories, along with my justification in each category. Come back next week for my take on the actual nominees, which will be announced early on Tuesday, January 22nd.
Of note: The predicted nominees in each category are listed in order of likelihood to be nominated.
Best Picture
A Star Is Born
Green Book
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternates:If Beale Street Could Talk,First Man
I’m predicting eight nominees for Best Picture this year, but there could technically be anywhere between five and 10 nominees.A Star Is Bornis the only film this year to pick up nominations from almost every single guild beforehand, missing only a nomination from the Visual Effects Society.Roma,Green Book,BlacKkKlansman, andThe Favouritehave also been mainstays on the guild circuit and have critical acclaim to boost them in, so I feel fairly confident about those.
Black Pantherhas been pegged as a shoo-in nominee for months now, which kind of makes me nervous. We all remember how this went down in 2008, whenThe Dark Knightwas a mainstay with the guilds and a surefire Best Picture nominee only for the Academy to go forThe Readerinstead. So I’m hesitant to call this a surething, but I’m fairly confidentBlack Panthergets in. If it doesn’t, this will be the biggest snub since, appropriately enough,The Dark Knight.
Then we haveVice, which divided critics but has fared quite well with the guilds, picking up a Directors Guild Nomination forAdam McKay(notably the DGA leftBlack Panther’sRyan Coogleroff its list). I think it gets in, but also wouldn’t be entirely surprised if it doesn’t have the passion needed to score a Best Picture nomination. We’ll see.
And finally, in terms of what I’m predicting to be nominated, there’sBohemian Rhapsody. With a 62% on Rotten Tomatoes, it will be the worst-reviewed Best Picture nominee since 2011’sExtremely Loud and Incredibly Close. But unlike that film,Bohemian Rhapsodyis a box office phenomenon, having grossed an astounding $774 million worldwide (and counting). People undeniably love this film, despite drama surrounding its false depiction of Freddie Mercury’s life and its credited directorBryan Singerbeing fired off the film in the midst of production. None of that seems to have matter to audiences and plenty of folks in the industry, asBohemian Rhapsodypicked up nominations from key guilds including the PGA and SAG. All signs point to it getting in, so here we are.
As for what’s just on the cusp,Barry Jenkins’Moonlightfollow-upIf Beale Street Could Talkhas been a regular on the critics circuit, but for whatever reason it’s lacking in key guild support that usually signals a Best Picture nomination. This doesn’t mean itwon’tget in, but the film’s prospects are down a bit after being snubbed by not only the Screen Actors Guild, but also the Producers Guild and Directors Guild.
Somewhat ironically,Damien Chazelle’s new film is also a bubble candidate.First Manwas initially pegged as a major player this awards season, but positive yet unenthusiastic reviews and truly disappointing box office did a number on it. I think there’s a very strong likelihood the film will pick up a lot of Oscar nominations on Tuesday and none of them will be Best Picture, but perhaps there’s been a surge of passion that will vault it into the nominations circle.
These 10 are the major players and most likely candidates, though there’s always the possibility that a spoiler likeCrazy Rich Asians,Mary Poppins Returns, or evenA Quiet Placesneaks in. The Academy’s 8,000+ voting body has become exponentially younger and more diverse over the last couple of years, which makes predicting the nominees (and especially winners) more difficult. But I’m not complaining. I’d love to see a big surprise shake things up.
For now, though, based on my prior experience and knowledge of the landscape at the moment, this is how I see it playing out.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón –Roma
Bradley Cooper –A Star Is Born
Spike Lee –BlacKkKlansman
Peter Farrelly –Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos –The Favourite
Alternates: Adam McKay (Vice), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Ryan Coogler (Black Panther), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Director is one of the toughest categories to predict this year. I’m extremely confident thatAlfonso Cuarón,Bradley Cooper, andSpike Leewill get in. The DGA nominated that trio, plusPeter FarrellyandAdam McKay. I’m less confident about the last two. Farrelly could take the biggest hit due to the controversies that continue to surroundGreen Book, although it’s also possible that the film’s detractors have only emboldened its defenders.
As for McKay, he’s been nominated in this category before forThe Big Short, and when the Academy’s Directors branch diverges from the DGA nominees, it usually does so in favor of a more “artsy” or left-field pick likePaul Thomas AndersonforPhantom ThreadorLenny AbrahamsonforRoom. So I think eitherYorgos Lanthimosor Polish filmmakerPawel Pawlikowskihas a really strong shot at getting nominated. I’m kind of torn between the two, but went with Lanthimos given the popularity ofThe Favourite.
Best Actress
Glenn Close –The Wife
Lady Gaga –A Star Is Born
Olivia Colman –The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy –Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Emily Blunt –Mary Poppins Returns
Alternates: Elsie Fischer (Eighth Grade), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
The first four contenders here I feel extremely confident in—and beyond that,Glenn Close,Lady Gaga, andOlivia Colmanare your frontrunners to win the trophy. That fifth slot is a bit of a question mark, but I’m following how SAG voted here and notingEmily BluntforMary Poppins Returns. Everyone loves Blunt, she’s been working the circuit pretty heavily, and even those who weren’t crazy aboutMary Poppinssparked to her performance.
If it’s not Blunt, I could seeYalitza Apariciogetting in forRomaor maybe possiblyToni ColletteforHereditary, although the Academy’s bias against horror remains strong.
Best Actor
Christian Bale –Vice
Rami Malek –Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen –Green Book
John David Washington –BlacKkKlansman
Alternates: Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Similarly, I’m going with the SAG lineup here too, although I could easily see a scenario in whichJohn David Washingtonmisses the cut in favor ofWillem Dafoe, who has reportedly benefited from a bit of a last-minute surge in passion for his portrayal of Vincent van Gough. And whileEthan Hawkehas dominated the critics circuit for his towering performance inFirst Reformed, I’m afraid his SAG snubbing and the WGA turning a cold shoulder to the film’s script may be a bad sign re: Oscars.
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King –If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone –The Favourite
Rachel Weisz –The Favourite
Amy Adams –Vice
Claire Foy –First Man
Alternates: Linda Cardellini (Green Book), Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased), Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
The Best Supporting Actress category is usually quite thin, owing to the dearth of complex female roles in Hollywood. But therearesome great performances this year, and I feel pretty strongly about this lineup.Claire Foyis probably the most vulnerable, and as my colleague Matt Goldberg pointed out, support forCrazy Rich Asianscould manifest here in a nomination forMichelle Yeoh.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali –Green Book
Sam Elliott –A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant –Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Adam Driver –BlacKkKlansman
Timothée Chalamet –Beautiful Boy
Alternates: Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther), Sam Rockwell (Vice), Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk)
This category is nowMahershala Ali’s to lose, butSam Elliott,Richard E. Grant,Adam Driver, andTimothee Chalamethave been mainstays throughout the season. It’s possible Chalamet gets dropped in favor of someone likeMichael B. JordanorSam Rockwell, especially since it doesn’t look as though Chalamet has been doing much in the way of campaigning, but I’m afraid the stigma ofBlack Pantheras a Marvel movie may keep Jordan out of the category here. Though I maintain the right to be pleasantly surprised if the acting branch wises up to the complexity of Jordan’s performance in that movie.
Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
Alternates:First Reformed,A Quiet Place
I feel pretty confident about the top four here.First Reformedhas been pegged as a serious contender for months, but the Writers Guild snubbing gave me serious pause. I’m thinkingBo Burnham’s charmingEighth Grademay be making it in instead.
Best Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternates:First Man,Leave No Trace,Crazy Rich Asians
Adapted Screenplay is tough this year, but for the win it appears to be a race betweenBlacKkKlansmanandIf Beale Street Could Talk. I expect the love to shine onCan You Ever Forgive Me?andA Star Is Bornhere as well, although I also wouldn’t be shocked if there arose a surprise snub in the form ofA Star Is Born. The WGA nomination forBlack Panthergave me the confidence to put it in here, but keep an eye out forCrazy Rich Asians.
Best Film Editing
Alternates:The Favourite,Green Book,Mission: Impossible – Fallout
The nomination from the American Cinema Editors forBohemian Rhapsodyis my justification for putting that film here, even if it pains me to do so.Roma,First Man, andA Star Is Bornare all fairly confident picks, andVicestands a really strong shot at getting nominated as well—Hank Corwinwas previously nominated for cutting McKay’sThe Big Short. Recently the Editors branch of the Academy has gotten more ambitious with nominations for films likeBaby DriverandWhiplash, so if there’s any justice they’ll rightly recognizeEddie Hamilton’s stellar work onMission: Impossible – Fallout. Although a lack of an ACE Eddie nom for that film unfortunately has me doubtful.
Best Cinematography
Alternates:If Beale Street Could Talk
This one’s pretty straightforward. I’m going with the American Society of Cinematographers Guild nominees, which coincide with the frontrunners in this category for some time—althoughJames Laxton’s work inIf Beale Street Could Talkis truly stunning.
