It’s that time of year again, folks. Welcome back toOscar Beat, where we’ve got every inch of the awards race covered from preliminary looks, contender commentaries, and of course plenty of predictions. The next Oscar season is about to get underway in proper fashion with the kick off of the Fall Film Festival season—a trifecta of the Venice Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, and the Toronto International Film Festival where some of the year’s biggest Oscar contenders will be introduced. Almost all of the Best Picture winners of the past decade (or more) have screened at either Telluride and/or TIFF, and so within the next month, there’s a strong chance our eventual Best Picture winner will have already been seen and appraised by critics.
But before things get too nutty, I wanted to take a moment to offer an early look at the lay of the land. Where do things stand, and what films look like they’re poised to be the biggest contenders of the coming Oscar season? Of course there’s no way to know for sure, and studios have been known to throw a curveball or two with release date shuffling, but there’s already a pretty robust lineup of contenders to thumb through.
Two of the biggest potential contenders may actually have been kicking around since January. Sundance saw the debut of bothKenneth Lonergan’s masterful grief dramaManchester by the Sea, starringCasey Affleck, andNate Parker’s explosive slavery dramaBirth of a Nation. The latter was snatched up for a huge sum by Oscar veteran Fox Searchlight, but the studio is now facing serious backlash to the film stemming from theresurfacing of rape chargesfiled against Parker and the film’s co-writerJean McGianni Celestin.Manchester, meanwhile, certainly boasts Oscar-worthy performances, direction, etc., but it’s Amazon’s first major foray into the awards season, so it’ll be interesting to see how the industry reacts to the streaming giant that snatched up distribution rights at Sundance just a year after they gave Netflix’sBeasts of No Nationthe cold shoulder.
In terms of dramas, directorJeff Nichols’ (Mud) interracial marriage true storyLovingenjoyed highly positive reviews following its Cannes debut, and could hit big on the festival circuit as it’s poised to play at TIFF. There’s alsoFences, which seesDenzel WashingtonandViola Davisreprising their Tony-winning performances from the Broadway stage play of the same name with Washington directing. That one has powerhouse producerScott Rudinand the weight of Paramount behind its back, and could certainly be a strong player in the lead acting categories.
We’re also not lacking for films from iconic filmmakers. Academy favoriteClint Eastwoodenters the awards fray once again with the true story dramaSully, starring the ever-likeableTom Hanks, and Oscar-winnerAng Leeattempts to rewrite the language of cinema with his visually ambitious Iraq War dramaBilly Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. And while it hasn’t been given a release date just yet,Martin Scorsese’s passion projectSilence—a religion-driven drama about 17th century Jesuit priests—is expected to dropsometimethis fall. There’s also theMel Gibsonquestion, as theBraveheartfilmmaker returns to the director’s chair for the first time in a decade with the pacifist WWII filmHacksaw Ridge, which boasts a “true story” premise andAndrew Garfieldin the lead role. And while it’s been a while since directorRobert Zemeckishas been in the Oscar hunt, his World War II thrillerAlliedhas star-power to spare withBrad PittandMarion Cotillard.
And let’s not forget aboutBen Affleck. After scoring the Best Picture trophy forArgo, Affleck set up his next directorial project as the prohibition-era dramaLive by Night, but kept pushing it back to work withDavid Fincher, play Batman, etc. Warner Bros. has shuffled the release date of this thing around a few times, initially eyeing an awards run fornextyear, but they finally settled on a mid-January date a laAmerican Sniper, so one assumes an awards qualifying run at the end of December is in order. Will Affleck get into the Best Director fray?
The awards season isn’t simply relegated to dramas, however. Response to trailers forDenis Villeneuve’s sci-fi filmArrivalhave been phenomenal, and the director’s last filmSicarioscored a few Oscar nods after picking up serious critical support on the fall film festival circuit.Arrivalis making the same rounds, hitting Telluride and TIFF, so we’ll know what’s what soon enough. Then we have the next film fromWhiplashdirectorDamien Chazelle, a musical calledLa La LandstarringRyan GoslingandEmma Stone. Initially slated for a summer release date, Summit pushed the film to December and set up a splashy Venice Film Festival debut signaling that the studio is feeling pretty confident about this one. And whileJ.A. Bayona’s disaster dramaThe Impossiblescored a Best Actress nomination forNaomi Watts, his adaptation of the fantasy novelA Monster Calls, about a young boy who copes with his mother’s impending death by conversing with a giant monster, looks to be a tearjerker of the most intense sort.
There are also a number of other unknowns. IsThe HelpdirectorTate Taylor’s bestseller adaptationThe Girl on the Train“the goods” likeGone Girl, or is it a mere commercial play? Will directorTom Ford’s long-awaitedA Single Manfollow-upNocturnal Animalsamass similarly stellar reviews? CouldShakespeare in LovedirectorJohn Maddenfinally return to the Oscar hunt with his gun lobby dramaMiss Sloane, led byJessica Chastain?
We’re also not lacking for star-driven vehicles, asWill Smithleads the dramaCollateral Beauty—which has the makings of a great filmorthe nextSeven Pounds. And Oscar-nominatedThe Imitation GamedirectorMorten Tyldumcashed in his chips with the sci-fi romancePassengers, led by “so-hot-right-now” performersChris PrattandJennifer Lawrence. We could also seeMatthew McConaugheyback in the Best Actor race withGold, which marksStephen Gaghan’s first film since 2005’sSyriana, for which he won the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar. And we can’t discount that Weinstein magic, as The Weinstein Company is betting big on the dramaLion, which starsDev Patelas a man who finds his birth parents from whom he was separated as a child while surfing Google Earth.
This is by no means a comprehensive overview, and there’s sure to be a surprise breakout or two from the festivals, but as it stands now these look to be the most likely candidates to make the rounds this coming Oscar season. I’ll be atTIFFin early September and filing plenty of updates on films as I see them, so stay tuned folks. And buckle in—it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.
