It’s that time of year, folks. It’s hard to believe that just a few months ago we were in the midst of the fall movie season beginning, with many of the year’s most anticipated Oscar contenders still unseen. But we’re now into the thick of it, with the Oscar race taking assome major films broke out in a big wayat the fall festivals, while others have fizzled faster than you can sayUnbroken.
While the Oscar race is indeed a fluid beast, I’ve been offering my predictions in a number of categories for a few weeks now, providing a snapshot of where things stand at any given moment. This post will be regularly updated as the race does indeed change, so for now, check out the latest update as of January 5th.
Frontrunners
1.La La Land
2.Moonlight
3.Manchester by the Sea
5.Hidden Figures
6.Hell or High Water
9.Hacksaw Ridge
10.Silence
Oscar nominations voting has officially begun, and with SAG weighing in with its nominations and the Writers Guild of America and Art Directors Guild offering up their respective nominees, things are starting to take the final shape. There are three virtual locks at this point in time:La La Land,Moonlight, andManchester by the Sea. If one of these three fails to land a Best Picture nomination I will eat my hat and shoe and sock. But beyond that, things gettricky.
First, the boosts.Hidden Figures—a late entry to the race—may ride that “feel-good” train all the way to the Oscars as it landed a number of SAG nominations (including Best Ensemble) as well as a WGA nomination. That means there’s widespread support for this film despite its late release date, and it’s looking more and more like a sure thing.Hell or High Wateralso scored SAG and WGA noms and feels like a surer thing every day.
But presumed major contenders likeSilenceandJackiehave largely gotten the shaft from the guilds.Martin Scorsese’s faith-driven drama is not an easy film to unpack, and it’s been largely ignored by critics groups as Paramount seems to be putting more of its weight behindArrival. It missed out on a screenplay nomination from SAG in favor ofDeadpool, which just seems downright mean, and could signal that this film may not have the widespread support needed for a Best Picture nomination.Jackietoo was seen as a major contender, but it missed out on a WGA nomination—which was expected—and failed to land SAG notice beyondNatalie Portman.
But really, beyond all of this, it’s very much a guessing game. More will become clear when the Producers Guild and Directors Guild weigh in, but as of now this is how I see things playing out.
In the Mix
11.Florence Foster Jenkins
15.20th Century Women
Dropping in a big way isSully, which once felt like the perfect film for the older white demographic of the Academy, but has since been snubbed by some of the major precursor groups.Tom Hanksshockingly didn’t land a Best Actor nod from SAG, nor did the movie score a Best Ensemble nomination. Warner Bros. hasn’t missed out on the Best Picture race in a very long time, but this could be the year they don’t crack the category.
Florence Foster Jenkinswas a sizeable hit for Paramount and has the reliableMeryl Streepin its corner, and I think it has the potential to be a somewhat surprising little-engine-that-could, especially since the studio just put it back into theaters.
As forLoving, directorJeff Nichols' intimate interracial marriage drama was once a pretty formidable Best Picture player, but after being snubbed by the SAG Awards—especiallyRuth Neggafor Best Actress—it’s looking less likely that this refreshingly quiet drama will make it in. Still, a resurgence is possible.
BeginnersfilmmakerMike Mills' follow-up film20th Century Womengarnered swell reviews at NYFF, and while the reaction wasn’t necessarily rapturous, there’s plenty of buzz aroundAnnette BeningandGreta Gerwig’s performances, and the film could certainly find Academy support.
Outside Contenders
16.Captain Fantastic
17.Nocturnal Animals
18.Patriots Day
19.The Jungle Book
20.Zootopia
These are the films that are on the fringes, andcouldbreak into the Best Picture conversation at some point, but are still a little on the outside looking in at the moment. One of the bigger surprises on this awards circuit is the resurfacing ofCaptain Fantastic, a Sundance indie that was released in the summer.Viggo Mortensenlooks like a solid Best Actor contender, and the film itself scored a Best Ensemble SAG nod.
Tom Ford’s long-awaitedA Single Manfollow-upNocturnal Animalsdebuted at TIFF last month, and while I absolutely loved it, some critics found it shallow or “trashy”, which is a criticism I can’t really comprehend.
Peter Bergwas potentially in the awards race a couple of years ago withLone Survivor, but the film failed to gain any serious steam. He could find more success with his Boston Marathon bombing dramaPatriots Day, starringMark Wahlberg, assuming the film has the goods. Reviews have been mostly positive so far, but it’s tough to get a read on this one.Trent ReznorandAtticus Rossare composing the score, so at the very least that’s one aspect worth looking out for.
Live by Nightlooks to be D.O.A. as reception does not seem to be kind toBen Affleck’s directorial follow-up toArgo, but the underrated/underseenSing Streetlanded a surprise Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture - Comedy/Musical, so perhaps that signal boost could convince Academy voters to pop in that screener and witness one of the year’s most delightful films.
Look for more Oscar Beat coverage soon, andclick hereto catch up on all of this season’s columns so far. For more predictions, peruse the links below:
