Ahoy,Oscar Beatreaders. Long time no see. It’s been a few weeks since our last entry, and this year’s awards race remains a mysterious beast. There’s still no clear “frontrunner” when to comes to Best Picture, although there are a couple of finalists vying for that spot. But studios are in the midst of sending out awards screeners in full force, which means the critics groups will be weighing in in just a matter of weeks. Of course, critics don’t vote for Oscars, and more and more lately there seems to arise a “critics choice” for Best Picture and an “Academy choice”, but the various precursor awards do help to raise the profiles of certain films, while others may fall by the wayside.
So as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday, now seems like a good time to take a snapshot of the Best Picture race as it stands now. I’ve broken it up into a few different categories with mycurrent(ie. not final) predictions for this year’s Best Picture nominees at the bottom. Let’s get started.
The Safe Bets
There’s no such thing as a “sure thing”, but at this point I’d be pretty shocked ifSpotlight,Room, andThe Martiandidn’t make the cut for Best Picture. If you can call anything a “frontrunner” at the moment it’sTom McCarthy’s searing Catholic Church sex scandal dramaSpotlight, which is a meticulously paced, tremendously crafted journalism procedural. The picture has picked up rave after rave ever since its debuted on the festival circuit, and I imagine it’ll top many voters’ lists when the Academy starts collecting ballots.
Roomis another critical favorite, and one that kind of snuck up on folks. It’s a contained piece of work, showcasing a pair of phenomenal performances inBrie LarsonandJacob Tremblayas a mother and son held in captivity, but it landed the coveted audience prize at the Toronto International Film Festival, which almost always results in a Best Picture nomination. So I’d countRoomin.
And then there’sThe Martian, which appears to be this year’s “commercial” nominee.Ridley Scotthasn’t been in the awards race in a long time, and thoughGladiatortook home the big prize, Scott was passed over for Best Director (a fact he was not thrilled about). ButThe Martianhas earned Scott some of the best reviews of the career, and it’s an out and out crowdpleaser, ratcheting up the box office chart and still going strong nearly two months after release.The Martianis not only a favorite to land a Best Picture nomination, it has the potential to actually go all the way for the win.
The Likely to Succeeds
Here’s where things get a bit trickier. There are a number of films that are somewhat “waiting in the wings”, looking for that extra push, that late-season surge, or surprise windfall to land themselves in the coveted Best Picture category. A month ago,Steve Jobswas a “safe bet”, but the film’s abysmal box office performance and Universal’s apparent embarrassment (they drasticallypulled the movie from wide releaseafter just two weeks) have folks second guessing its Oscar chances. It remains one of the better reviewed films of the year, and the Academy’s largest voting body—the actors—loveAaron Sorkin, so I’m still pretty confident in its chances even if it’s slightly less of a sure thing.
Inside Outis another film that stands a solid chance of landing a Best Picture nomination. 2009’sUpand 2010’sToy Story 3previously netted Pixar Best Picture nominations, andInside Outis similarly one of the best-reviewed films of the year and also hails from the same director asUp,Pete Docter. If anything’s working against it it’s thatCharlie Kafuman’s R-rated, stop-motion animatedAnomalisahas emerged asanotherimpeccably received animated film. WhileAnomalisadoesn’t have much of a shot at landing in the Best Picture category, it could potentially siphon votes away fromInside Outfrom folks who don’t want to put two animated films on their list, despite the fact that this is very dumb reasoning. Regardless, I still thinkInside Outgets in.
Speaking of critical darlings,John Crowley’s outstanding immigrant storyBrooklynis doing swimmingly in limited release, and it feels like the kind of film that will play incredibly well with Oscar voters. Given that it only just hit theaters it’s still a tad early to call it, butBrooklynis a serious contender in the Best Picture race to be sure. There’s alsoBridge of Spies, which may not have made a big splash in the pop culture realm, but is showing strong legs at the box office and is another kind of film that’s right up the Academy’s alley. Plus, it’sSteven Spielberg. EvenWar Horsegot a Best Picture nomination, so you’d do well to hold a slot forBridge of Spies.
The Bubble Contenders
Then we have a tier of films that really could go either way.Tom Hooperlanded Best Director and Best Picture wins forThe King’s Speech, and even thoughLes Miserables’ response was decidedly more mixed, it still nabbed a Best Picture slot.The Danish Girlplayed tosolid if muted responsesat the Venice and Toronto International Film Festivals this fall, leaving many to wonder if Hooper may not pull the Best Picture hat trick after all.The Danish Girlis far from a bad film, but it is a very quiet, very patient one. It’s incredibly sensitive with its material, which doesn’t make for the biggest of “splashes”, but I have an instinct it’ll find a late surge once Academy voters get a closer look, especially when it comes toEddie RedmayneandAlicia Vikander’s performances.
Beasts of No Nationwas a notable film for many reasons. It’s not onlyCary Fukunaga’s highly anticipated directorial follow-up toTrue Detective, but it’s Netflix’s first original filmandfirst Oscar play.Reviews have been kind, but it’s a very difficult film to watch and is slightly overlong. If voters take the time to actually watch the movie it has a shot at landing in the Best Picture field, but it’s very much an “up in the air” play at the moment.
Todd Haynes’ romantic dramaCarolis also certainly of the year’scritical darlings, and while it’s had a robust life on the festival circuit, it remains to be seen how Oscar voters respond to the pic about a love affair between a married middle-aged woman and a young department store clerk.Cate BlanchettandRooney Maramay turn out to be the film’s best shots at nominations, or it could be a bona fide Best Picture play. Again, could go either way.
Another critical hit wasDenis Villeneuve’s intense drug war thrillerSicario, which is a brilliant exercise in blending thoughtful subtext with incredibly compelling text. The heat on it has cooled a tad since its release, but if Lionsgate can keep it fresh in voters’ minds, I think it stands a well-deserved chance of landing in the field.
The Question Marks
CanMad Max: Fury Roadbe a Best Picture contender? What aboutStar Wars: The Force Awakens? These are some of the year’s biggest “question marks” when it comes to the awards race, althoughStar Warsdoesn’t seem too interested in playing the Oscar game—Disney isholding the picture back from screening for critics groups, taking it out of consideration for the first wave of awards and Top 10 lists at the beginning of December.Mad Max, meanwhile, faces an uphill battle as a genre picture. These types of films haven’t fared too well with Oscar in years past, though I’ll have more onMad Max’s chances in a separate Oscar Beat column soon.
There’s also Warner Bros.’Rockyreboot/sequelCreed, which is enjoying some really strong early word. If the film is a box office hit over the Thanksgiving holiday, folks would do well to keep an eye on it. Warner Bros. also hasRon Howard’s sea-set adventure dramaIn the Heart of the Sea, although they’ve been playing their cards a bit strangely with that one—no festivals, no long-lead screenings—so it may not be an “Oscar” kind of film.
Speaking of which, Universal is seriously pushing for box office hitStraight Outta Compton, and there’s support within the community for the NWA biopic to land some awards notice. Could we be looking atIce Cube, Best Picture nominee in the near future?
There are also plenty of other fantastic films that, if given the right amount of highlighting, could become players. Academy voters may feel inclined to acknowledge the deeply intimate and emotionally devastating45 Years, or one of the best biopics in recent memory withLove & Mercy. The housing crisis drama99 Homesis certainly deserving of recognition, andMe and Earl and the Dying Girlremains one of the most moving films of the year. There’s only room for so many, yet the wealth of notable filmmaking in 2015 is imposing.
The Unseens
And we haven’t even seenallthe contenders yet. Top of the list isThe Revenant, directorAlejandro G. Iñárritu’s follow-up to last year’s Oscar winnerBirdman. The behind-the-scenes stories are verging on myth at this point, but no one’s doubting the dedication of Iñárritu,Leonardo DiCaprio, or his cinematographerEmmanuel Lubezki, who capture the entire film using natural light. IfThe Revenantis good, it’s a juggernaut to watch out for. If it’s not, the goodwill of Iñárritu and DiCaprio could possibly even carry the film to a Best Picture nomination anyway.
Another pedigree-heavy release isJoy, which is much less assured thanThe Revenant.David O. Russellhas come close three times now to nabbing that Oscar glory, inching ever closer with 2013’sAmerican Hustle, which netted a ton of nominations and zero wins. This time he’s behind a star vehicle forJennifer Lawrencewith a stable of frequent collaborators at his side, but the movie now has a number of editors working to refine it in the post-production process, so I’m less inclined to call this one this early.
And then there’sQuentin Tarantino’sThe Hateful Eight, a Western that’s equal parts performance showcase and visual spectacle. Shot in 70mm, the contained picture takes place mostly within the confines of a single room as a diverse cast spouts off Tarantino’s signature dialogue and plots one another’s murders.Django Unchainedwas a massive commercial and critical hit for Tarantino, landing him a second Best Original Screenplay Oscar, so expectations are high for his second Western. The guy doesn’t make bad movies, so I’d say it’s pretty safe to assumeHateful Eightwill land a Best Picture nomination.
Finally,Step BrothersandAnchormandirectorAdam McKaymakes his drama debut withThe Big Short, an ensemble piece that tackles the financial crisis in a unique manner. McKay’s film is bolstered by a staggeringly good-looking cast that includesRyan Gosling,Christian Bale,Steve Carell, andBrad Pitt. This one is screening very soon at AFI Fest so we’ll know shortly whether it’s a serious contender or not, but for now it’s one to keep an eye on.
Predictions
So, again, where do things stand now? If I were to take a snapshot of the race at this particular moment, keeping in mind that there will be many ebbs and flows between now and nominations day, my Best Picture predictions would look something like this:
So, there you have it. Things will become much more clear once all the films have been screened, but for now that’s my best educated guess. Look for much more on this year’s awards race soon in another edition of Oscar Beat.
