If you’ve been paying attention to Collider over the past couple of weeks, you’ve noticeda lot of contentout of the Toronto International Film Festival. The splashy fest is home to debuts and screenings of some of the biggest movies from the upcoming fall/winter movie season, as well as some golden indies that secure distribution based on buzz from the TIFF screenings. But TIFF is also one of the places where the Oscar race begins. It’s the third in a trio of fall festivals that serve to kick off the year’s awards race, coming on the heels of Telluride and Venice. Reaction from critics and audience members at TIFF can sometimes launch a film into the awards race in a big way (see:La La Land,Gravity, andDallas Buyers Club), while it’s also a place where some potential contenders falter before they get started (see:Cloud Atlas).
Having just returned from nine days at TIFF, and being Collider’s resident awards editor, I wanted to bring you the skinny on the big films I saw from an Oscar perspective. What are the likeliest nominations forThe Shape of Water? Is The Weinstein Company back in the race withThe Current War? Answers to all of this and more below.
Battle of the Sexes
CanEmma Stonepull off back to back Best Actress nominations? It’s entirely possible.Battle of the Sexes—which at once is aBillie Jean Kingbiopic, a coming-out story, a sports drama, and a film about sexism—received a fairly positive response at TIFF, and Stone’s performance is the goods. The film didn’t go off as rapturously as may be needed to launch it into the Best Picture conversation, but it has a couple of “it” factors going for it: 1. Bringing out Billie Jean King on the press circuit is a huge draw and she is positively charming and 2. It offers the clearest parallel to the Clinton/Trump narrative of any movie this year thus far. Both of these could easily vault its chances at scoring a Best Picture nomination, despite more subdued reviews.
Best Shots at Nominations
Best Picture
Actress – Emma Stone
Original Screenplay – Simon Beaufoy
Andy Serkis’ directorial debutBreatheis averytraditional (old-fashioned even) biopic, but it boasts a pretty terrific lead performance fromAndrew Garfieldthat could garner notice. Garfield plays a man who becomes paralyzed from the neck down after contracting polio, and then makes the most out of his new life on a respirator. It’s a nice film, but doesn’t ever really rise above to become somethingmore. Reviews were somewhat mixed so this one may be a longshot, but Garfield’s a possibility here.
Actor – Andrew Garfield
Call Me By Your Name
The Sundance sensationCall Me By Your Namedid exactly what Sony Pictures Classics was hoping at TIFF—grow its legion of passionate fans. The film went over incredibly well, and still seems on track to be amajorplayer in the awards race to come. I only hope thatArmie Hammer’s tremendous supporting/co-starring work doesn’t go unnoticed.
Director – Luca Guadagnino
Actor – Timothee Chalamet
Supporting Actor - Michael Stuhlbarg
Adapted Screenplay – James Ivory
Production Design
Original Song
The Current War
Coming intoThe Current War, a film The Weinstein Company has been trying to make for years, the question was whether TWC would be back in fighting shape for this awards season. The answer, undoubtedly, is no. This chronicle of the AC/DC battle between Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse is surprisingly devoid of dramatic stakes (both men are successful, married, and wealthy at the beginning of the movie), and whileBenedict CumberbatchandMichael Shannonare fine in the roles, the script is too disjointed and unfocused to coalesce into an impactful or meaningful experience. Reviews were not kind, so this one’s a non-starter.
Darkest Hour
Buzz onDarkest Hourwas strong coming into TIFF as it had just had its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, and it did not disappoint. This is a traditional Oscar contender with a modern flair—a World War II drama/biopic hybrid with a transformative lead performance, but captured with dynamic and visceral filmmaking from directorJoe Wright. That’s a lethal combination regardless of Academy makeup, and indeedDarkest Hour’s biggest threat at the moment is whether Academy voters are keen to recognize two films in the same year about the same event (Dunkirk), even if they tell the story from entirely different points of view. One thing is for absolute certain:Gary Oldmanhas a Best Actor nomination in the bag, if not the win already. More onDarkest Hour’s Oscar chances can be foundhere.
Actor – Gary Oldman
Director – Joe Wright
Original Screenplay – Anthony McCarten
Cinematography
Costume Design
Hairstyling and Makeup
Downsizing
FilmmakerAlexander Paynehas landed Best Picture nominations for his last three films in a row, but that streak could come to an end withDownsizing. The comedy/drama starsMatt Damonas a man who takes advantage of a new technological innovation that allows him to shrink himself to five inches tall and live in a community where his money isfarmore valuable. It’s a weird film, and one that at times feels like three or four different movies stitched together as its narrative arc goes to some very unexpected places. Reception out of the Venice and Telluride festivals was somewhat divisive, and that grew even more exaggerated at TIFF. Some people hated it, a few loved it, and most were pretty mixed on it.
Payne is beloved andHong Chaugives a terrific performance that could earn her some recognition, but this one is far from a sure thing.
Supporting Actress – Hong Chau
The Florida Project
This one marks the second feature fromTangerinefilmmakerSean Baker, and it first debuted to wild acclaim at Cannes earlier this year.The Florida Projecthas now hit the fall festival circuit and it’s playing like gangbusters. This is a tearjerker of the highest order; a special little film with phenomenal performances and a big heart.Willem Dafoeis at the very least guaranteed Supporting Actor notice, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the film gets into the Best Picture race. A lot of this will come down to how widely this film is seen by the Academy. It’s a small movie, but then again so wasMoonlightand we know how that played out. If A24 is able to use thoseBeasts of the Southern Wildcomparisons to get folks to actually watch the thing, I’m fairly confident it’ll get into the Best Picture race.
Supporting Actor – Willem Dafoe
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Buzz has been swirling aboutAnnette Beningscoring another Best Actress nomination forFilm Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool, and that certainly seems like it could be the case. TIFF response was a bit more muted than it was for the film out of Telluride, but regardless if Sony Pictures Classics pushes hard enough, Bening could be in the conversation.
Actress – Annette Bening
Hostilesis tricky because the film may not even come out this year.Out of the FurnaceandBlack MassdirectorScott Cooper’s incredibly gritty Western is still seeking distribution, but if it does get picked up and released this year,Christian Baleis an outside possibility for a Best Actor nomination andMasanobu Takayanagi’s cinematography may be hard to ignore.
Actor – Christian Bale
Cinematography – Masanobu Takayanagi
While TIFF launches Oscar movies, it’s also a place of business where films without distributors get sold to buyers. That was the case withI, Tonya, which sparked a bidding war after its premiere screening. DirectorCraig Gillespie’s (Lars and the Real Girl) film is a darkly comedic, surprisingly emotional chronicle of Tonya Harding’s life leading up to and through the Nancy Kerrigan scandal.Margot RobbieandAllison Janneyare downright extraordinary in the film, spinning from comedy to drama on a dime without missing a beat. The big question mark here is Neon, which secured distribution rights and will release the film. The new studio doesn’t have any experience running Oscar campaigns, but if they can hit the ground running, a pair of acting nominations are definitely not out of the question. If this thing really hits,Steven Rogerscould even crack into the Original Screenplay conversation.
Actress – Margot Robbie
Supporting Actress – Allison Janney
